The biggest climate conference was a success or yet a missed chance to address climate change? There were high stakes at the Glasgow COP26 climate change talks. They concluded two weeks ago, and some claim that with the strongest commitment, that keeps the ambitious targets of the Paris climate agreement alive. But what did COP26 accomplish?
In 2015 in Paris, the 196 countries that participated in the discussions made too often soft commitments to limit global warming. The insufficient commitments, if met, would cause the average ambient temperature to raise 2.7°C (4.9°F) by 2100. Since then, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise.
In Glasgow, 130 countries have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This could limit global warming to 1.8°C. The temperature has already increased by 1.1°C on average. GHG emissions are still rising and will capture more heat. To stay below 1.5°C the IPCC says that we would have to cut GHG by half by 2030. And the trends point the opposite direction for some countries, while in others it is not happening fast enough.
While some countries fail to meet their targets. Other countries such as Russia, China, and India will not commit to limiting the use of fossil fuels yet. Coal, oil, and natural gas power are too important for growing economies (China and India) and for export countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia).
COP26 tried to ask for the ‘phase-out’ of fossil fuels but it would only be a “phase-down”. This change was included at the last minute by India.
Carbon offsets and accounting now have international rules. Article 6 sets a mechanism allowing countries with low emissions to sell their exceeding allowance to larger emitters, with an overall cap of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some see this as a tool to keep polluting.
Another problem that has not yet been addressed is who pays for climate change effects? Rich countries have historically contributed most to GHG emissions. Today poor countries suffer the most. During COP26, the minister for the Maldives said that “The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is a death sentence for us”. As the planet warms, the worse the impacts of extreme events and sea-level rise.
Did COP 26 accomplish anything good?
While the overall scenario is negative, there were also some specific targets and some new commitments. Here are some of the key elements:
- Global Methane Pledge: over 100 countries committed to cut their methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Among them, the US, EU and UK, with the goal to keep the ‘1.5C’ alive.
- Deforestation ban: more than 100 countries including Brazil, Russia and US pledged to end deforestation by 2030. That is 9 years too late, and promises to limit cutting down forests in Indonesia and Amazon have failed in the past; what would be the difference today?
- Phasing out coal: over 40 countries have committed to stop using coal for electricity and others have even agreed to stop financing coal power plants in developing countries. However, the top three coal users of the planet, China, India and the United States did not sign. Together they consume 70% of the coal globally.
- Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance: lead by Costa Rica and Denmark, commit to set a date to stop producing oil and gas. None of the main producers signed or committed to this alliance.
Conclusion
There are a lot of long-term commitments, to try to limit the effects of climate change. But leaders failed to commit to taking action today. The path to meet the pledges needs to be established and initiated, and this has not been done. Net-zero pledges by 2060, mean little today.
Too many countries are still subsidizing and expanding fossil fuel production (US, Canada, Norway, UK, and Australia). While others still developing coal power plants (China and India). Carbon Brief has mapped new coal plants being developed worldwide, as seen below.
Mapped: The world’s coal power plants
COP26 put climate change into the agenda again, and we are all talking about it. But it is time to take action, and that was not achieved.
What can I do?
While countries take a long time as individuals we can act to commit to a net-zero lifestyle. There are easy things that we can all do as citizens. Learn more on how to become carbon neutral.
