What is COP26?
Since 1995, the United Nations (UN) has organized with most of Earth countries a yearly climate summit called “Conference of the Parties” (COP). This year COP26 – 26th edition – in Glasgow is yet again the world’s best chance to effectively fight climate change, and limit global warming to 1.5°C degrees (2.7°F).
Global leaders meet to discuss how to address climate change and sometimes agree on global commitments that typically fall short. This year, the UK hosts the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties in Glasgow from October 31st to November 12th. In addition to Global leaders, private companies and NGOs also attend to make their voices heard.
Previous COPs, from Kyoto to Paris
It is not the first and it will not be the last. The United Nations Climate Change conferences (UNFCCC) have been held yearly since 1995. In 1997, during COP3 the Kyoto Protocol was established to establish binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
More recently, in COP21, in Paris, France, the Paris Agreement was negotiated by the 196 parties of the UNFCCC agreeing to keep the rise of the mean global temperature below 2°C (3.6°F), and preferably below 1.5°C (2.7°F). Parties agreed to reduce emissions as soon as possible and reach net-zero by the end of the century. However, no clear guidelines nor enforcement mechanisms were agreed.
We are not on track
In September 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published a report where the expected increase in temperature of 2.7°C to 3°C (4.8°F to 5.4°F). Well above the 1.5°C agreement from Paris. The IPCC is the UN body of scientists assessing climate change. IPCC identifies agreement in the scientific community, and where further research is needed. The IPCC Interactive Atlas shows the impact of different modeled scenarios.
IPCC confirmed that “unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C will be beyond reach.“
Goals of COP26
With previous unsuccessful COPs, where only insufficient agreements were made, and with missed commitments, what can we expect from COP26? COP26 has four main goals:
- Mitigation, to reach net zero by 2050 and keep the 1.5°C ‘within reach’. The countries need to be ambitious and propose reduction targets for 2030. To reach net-zero countries need to phase out fossil fuels, stop deforestation, and encourage investment in renewables.
- Adaptation, not only is important to reduce emissions, but also to help communities and natural habitats to adapt to the 1.5°C. Protecting and restoring ecosystems as well as building resilient infrastructures.
- Finance to ensure both first goals are met, developed countries must mobilize $100bn in climate finance per year by 2020 (would not be met until 2022, again we are late). This is combining international financial institutions in private and public sector finance to secure global net zero emissions.
- Collaboration is key. It is a global problem, for which we need to work together. COP26 aims to finalize the Paris Rulebook, to create a framework for Countries to meet carbon neutrality. COP26 also wants to accelerate the collaboration between governments, business and world citizens.
Goals are crucial to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but with previous insufficient outcomes, what can we expect from COP26?
What next?
COP President Alok Sharma said: “The science is clear that the window of time we have to keep the goal of 1.5℃ alive and to avoid the worst effects of climate change, is closing fast. But with political will and commitment, we can, and must, deliver an outcome in Glasgow the world can be proud of.”
Although limited positive outcomes from previous COPs, there is room for some optimism.
- Global Methane Pledge, methane is a potent GHG that contributes to global warming together with CO2. Countries joining the Global Methane Pledge commit to reducing emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Helping limit up to 0.2°C by 2050. The European Union together with the USA and seven other countries have already committed.
- Finance contribution by developed countries towards the $100bn goal: “95% of the top 20 developed countries have now made pledges beyond 2020.”
It would be key that Countries agree on the Paris Rulebook. This would set a clear framework that all countries can follow to fight climate change.