In the second week of November 2022, Egypt will host COP27. The 27th session of the Conference of the Parties of UNFCC is hosted in Sharm El Sheikh. One year after Glasgow, world leaders meet again to talk about climate. Limited progress was achieved since COP26, is 1.5 degrees still possible after COP27?
Is 1.5C still possible?
Recent reports from the UN indicate that the 1.5ºC target agreed in the Paris Agreement is beyond reach. After the Glasgow COP26 climate talks, some governments set ambitious targets to keep the Paris climate agreement alive. Since Paris 2015 greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. After a fall (of 4.7%) due to COVID pandemic in 2020 emissions have increased in 2021 and 2022. Global GHG emissions are likely to set a new record in 2021, estimated at 52.8 GtCO2e.
The reports insist that it is the latest opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree matters. The latest is true, but to meet the 1.5°C target, yearly GHG emissions must be reduced by 45% compared with emissions projections under current policies by 2025. And reduce sharply after 2030, to avoid exhausting the limited remaining atmospheric carbon budget.
Therefore Countries are asked to “revisit and strengthen” current 2030 targets by the end of 2022. Is it possible? It will mean that countries need to reduce their global emissions by 37% by 2030. From 52.8 GtCO2e to 33 GtCO2e1, an amount of 2.5 GtCO2e per year, a reduction of 4.7% per year. A similar drop has only been achieved so far by COVID-19 . It is therefore unlikely that Countries will react as swiftly and effectively.
Carbon budget
The carbon budget for 1.5ºC is the total amount of emissions that can be emitted so that global temperatures stay below that limit. It is a way of understanding how much we can emmit before a given temperature rise is no longer possible. The IPCC estimates the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is approximately 400 GtCO2 and 1,150 GtCO2 for 2°C. Therefore, the carbon budget will be exhausted by the end of the decade following current emissions.
Every fraction of a degree matters. Even though 1.5ºC is a long shot, we should aim at limiting every increase possible. A 2ºC temperature increase will provoque much more severe impacts: risk to food and water security, infrastructure damage, droughts, storms. No region in the world will be spared.
Affordable renewable energy
One positive element is the cost reduction of renewable energy. As per IRENA, since 2010 the cost of solar PV energy has dropped by 82%, onshore wind by 39% and 29% for offshore. Battery costs have also been reduced, the technology no longer needs to be incentivised. This trends have been disturbed in 2022 due to inflation, but long term trends are expected to continue. Boosted by research, increased capacity and technology advances, price are expected to further reduce in the future.
Adaptation and decoupling for a better tomorrow
Given that is unlikely after COP27 that 1.5 degrees is still possible. In order to make after COP 27 the 1.5 degrees still possible. There are measures and mitigations options to avoid the worse impacts. From decarbonizing the energy systems to a better use of agriculture, Forestry and land, to improve our cities, buildings and transport.
Countries and citizens will need to adapt to rising temperatures, storms, droughts, etc. Adaptation will look differently in each sector and area.
Every fraction of a degree matters – it is time to act for a better future.
- Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window – Figure ES.3
